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《大行》高盛:內地必需消費品企業物流成本通脹顯現 對康師傅、統一利潤影響較大
高盛發表報告指,留意到自3月至4月以來,該行覆蓋的中國必需消費品股範圍內,廣泛的物流成本通脹已開始顯現(例如海天、頤海等公司均已提及這點),同時市場已充分意識到,包裝材料(尤其是PET)的鎖定成本優勢,在2026年下半年新採購季開始時,將逐漸轉變為不利因素。該行的成本追蹤顯示,柴油價格年初至今已上漲5%,而5月至今的日均價較2025年平均水準上漲11%。從歷...
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《大行》高盛:內地必需消費品企業物流成本通脹顯現 對康師傅、統一利潤影響較大
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高盛發表報告指,留意到自3月至4月以來,該行覆蓋的中國必需消費品股範圍內,廣泛的物流成本通脹已開始顯現(例如海天、頤海等公司均已提及這點),同時市場已充分意識到,包裝材料(尤其是PET)的鎖定成本優勢,在2026年下半年新採購季開始時,將逐漸轉變為不利因素。

該行的成本追蹤顯示,柴油價格年初至今已上漲5%,而5月至今的日均價較2025年平均水準上漲11%。從歷史數據來看,柴油價格與布蘭特原油價格的相關係數超過0.8。作為參考,布蘭特原油價格年初至今已飆升80%,導致柴油平均批發價格年初至今上漲20%。

對於獲高盛覆蓋的純飲料公司(東鵬飲料、農夫山泉、華潤飲料等,部分公司基於高盛估算),物流成本約佔其銷貨成本(COGS)的高個位數至低十位數百分比;而對於該行覆蓋的其他必需消費品公司(包括冷凍食品、調味品、乳製品、啤酒),物流成本約佔銷貨成本的中個位數至中十位數百分比。大多數白酒/價值零售商的物流成本佔比較為有限。截至5月10日,柴油價格較2025年平均水準上漲11%,理論上可能對該行所覆蓋的公司帶來低個位數至高個位數的淨利潤下行風險,其中對啤酒、乳製品及飲料公司(如康師傅、統一企業中國)的影響最大。(da/u)

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