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《大行》美銀證券:中國市場第二季宜採守勢 靜待正面催化劑 挑選十大「超配」行業
美銀證券近日發表中國市場第二季展望報告,中國股市在今年1至2月落後MSCI新興市場指數,但在3月表現優於新興市場,股價波動較低、貨幣更穩定。雖然中國經濟基本面未必最令人振奮,但其龐大且多元化的經濟在極端情境下相對具備韌性,因為擁有大量國內煤炭儲備、快速增長的可再生能源、高原油庫存,以及對中東石油依賴度相對較低。該行建議中國市場第二季採守勢,靜待正面催化劑。展...
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《大行》美銀證券:中國市場第二季宜採守勢 靜待正面催化劑 挑選十大「超配」行業
Recommend
39
Positive
60
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37
 
 

美銀證券近日發表中國市場第二季展望報告,中國股市在今年1至2月落後MSCI新興市場指數,但在3月表現優於新興市場,股價波動較低、貨幣更穩定。雖然中國經濟基本面未必最令人振奮,但其龐大且多元化的經濟在極端情境下相對具備韌性,因為擁有大量國內煤炭儲備、快速增長的可再生能源、高原油庫存,以及對中東石油依賴度相對較低。該行建議中國市場第二季採守勢,靜待正面催化劑。

展望2026年第二季,關鍵觀察點仍在海灣地區航運與油氣供應鏈中斷,以及化工與肥料的連鎖風險。5月14日至15日的中美元首峰會若能促進雙邊關係穩定,可能成為正面催化劑。而中國的通脹、消費者信心、房地產市場與人工智慧應用仍是基本面核心因素。該行重申「槓鈴策略」,偏好價值與收益(銀行、能源),以及具備高護城河的產業(如半導體、工業、材料)。

回顧2026年第一季度盈利動能惡化。內銀板塊表現突出,77%的公司出現淨盈利預期上調,高於2025年第四季度的54%。金屬與礦業行業也有48%的淨盈利上調,其次是電子設備行業的27%。相較之下,媒體行業遭遇最嚴重的盈利下調,100%的公司在第一季度被下調預期,與第四季度75%的淨盈利上調形成鮮明對比。汽車行業持續低迷,第一季度有33%的淨盈利下調,延續了第四季度47%的下調。

展望2026年第二季,該行的量化模型投資組合更趨防禦。持續看好能源、金屬與礦業、黃金等在第一季表現良好的板塊,並將內銀、煤炭、化工納入「前十大」。對通訊設備與運輸相關板塊更為建設性。相反地,互動媒體與電信因盈利預期下修而落入「後十大」。該行仍對房地產、汽車、生技、服裝與鞋類保持謹慎,並下調家用耐用品與醫療設備板塊。

該行季度模型投資組合會選出前十大「超配」行業,包括(1)內銀、(2)石油及天然氣、(3)金屬及礦產、(4)化工、(5)黃金、(6)通訊設備、(7)煤及燃料、(8)航空與航運、(9)生命科學與服務及(10)交通運輸基礎設施。(wl/da)

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