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<Research>G Sachs Gives ST Risk Analysis for 3 Types of Firms as US Reportedly Planning to Tighten Scrutiny on CN Innovative Drugs Could Pose 'Headline Risks' for CN Pharmas
Goldman Sachs' research report cited The New York Times saying that the Donald Trump administration is currently discussing restrictions on Chinese pharmaceuticals and drafting...
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<Research>G Sachs Gives ST Risk Analysis for 3 Types of Firms as US Reportedly Planning to Tighten Scrutiny on CN Innovative Drugs Could Pose 'Headline Risks' for CN Pharmas
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Goldman Sachs' research report cited The New York Times saying that the Donald Trump administration is currently discussing restrictions on Chinese pharmaceuticals and drafting an executive order aimed at limiting the entry of Chinese innovative drugs into the US market through various measures.

According to media reports, however, a White House spokesperson said in a statement on Monday that the government is not actively considering the draft executive order at this time.

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While Goldman Sachs takes no position on the final outcome of any executive order or proposal, nor can it predict potential next steps, implementation methods, or pathways (especially as the article indicating that major US pharma companies are actively lobbying against the order), the broker believes this development could create "headline risks" for the Chinese biotech/ pharma sector and intensify stock price volatility.

With a new "licensing success rate” framework previously introduced by Goldman Sachs to reflect the overseas commercial value of Chinese biotech assets achieved through global partnerships, the broker, by comparing current market capitalization with the breakdown of China/overseas business valuations, grouped the companies with a higher proportion of overseas value into three categories.

Category 1 is companies with established global presence, such as BEIGENE (06160.HK)  -14.400 (-6.916%)    Short selling $582.85M; Ratio 14.972%   (ONC.US)      and Legend Biotech (LEGN.US)      . They are expected to face limited impact, as they already have solid foundations in markets like the US, and the market has relatively low expectations for new deals from them.

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Category 2 is companies with strong global partners, including SKB BIO-B (06990.HK)  -9.300 (-1.858%)    Short selling $112.85M; Ratio 11.437%   , 3SBIO (01530.HK)  -0.940 (-2.857%)    Short selling $373.21M; Ratio 12.334%   , HANSOH PHARMA (03692.HK)  -3.380 (-8.761%)    Short selling $216.22M; Ratio 12.446%   , and HENGRUI PHARMA (01276.HK)  -2.600 (-3.034%)    Short selling $121.25M; Ratio 11.686%   . Several biotech firms listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange also fall into this category, such as AKESO (09926.HK)  -5.800 (-4.345%)    Short selling $239.99M; Ratio 4.762%   (partnered with Summit Therapeutics (SMMT.US)      ) and DUALITYBIO-B (09606.HK)  +73.000 (+16.859%)    Short selling $192.16M; Ratio 19.604%   (partnered with BioNTech (BNTX.US)      and others).

Category 3 is companies with high expectations for out-licensing but no deals yet, which can be further divided into two subgroups: those planning to advance global clinical trials, such as INNOVENT BIO (01801.HK)  -2.500 (-2.510%)    Short selling $533.04M; Ratio 11.043%   , ZAI LAB (09688.HK)  -0.360 (-1.463%)    Short selling $350.64M; Ratio 36.364%   , and CSPC PHARMA (01093.HK)  -0.820 (-7.495%)    Short selling $886.86M; Ratio 19.189%   , and those unwilling or unable to pursue global clinical trials, such as ASCLETIS-B (01672.HK)  -2.790 (-19.662%)    Short selling $41.20M; Ratio 12.178%   , ANTENGENE-B (06996.HK)  -0.390 (-5.045%)   , and CSTONE PHARMA-B (02616.HK)  -0.930 (-7.881%)    Short selling $38.84M; Ratio 5.235%   .

The broker aims to provide investors with a framework for assessing the potential impact of policy risk on the short-term share price sensitivity of the related companies, but the core of the long-term valuation remains dependent on 1) data quality and the value of the pipeline's clinical differentiation; 2) company execution; and 3) financial position (cash reserves, balance sheet, and break-even status).
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2025-09-11 16:25.) (Real-time Streaming US Stocks Quote; Except All OTC quotes are at least 15 minutes delayed.)

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