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《大行》里昂升Marvell(MRVL.US)及AMD(AMD.US)評級至「跑贏大市」 上調多股目標價 料英偉達(NVDA.US)有望重奪Anthropic市佔
里昂發表報告,將Marvell(MRVL.US)及AMD(AMD.US)評級由「持有」升至「跑贏大市」,維持博通(AVGO.US)及蘋果(AAPL.US)「跑贏大市」評級,及重申台積電(2330.TW)及英偉達(NVDA.US)「高度確信跑贏大市」評級,並上調多隻重磅科技股/半導體股目標價(詳見文末附表)。該行指英偉達在Anthropic的AI晶片整體潛在市...
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《大行》里昂升Marvell(MRVL.US)及AMD(AMD.US)評級至「跑贏大市」 上調多股目標價 料英偉達(NVDA.US)有望重奪Anthropic市佔
Recommend
5
Positive
7
Negative
8
 
 

里昂發表報告,將Marvell(MRVL.US)      及AMD(AMD.US)      評級由「持有」升至「跑贏大市」,維持博通(AVGO.US)      及蘋果(AAPL.US)      「跑贏大市」評級,及重申台積電(2330.TW)及英偉達(NVDA.US)      「高度確信跑贏大市」評級,並上調多隻重磅科技股/半導體股目標價(詳見文末附表)。

該行指英偉達在Anthropic的AI晶片整體潛在市場(TAM)中僅佔35%的份額,這顯示錯失了一些機會,但Anthropic在快速成長過程中面臨的運算挑戰,意味著仍有挽回的餘地。另一方面,運算資源的短缺恐將進一步惡化-就連Ampere的算力價格也在上漲,而Hopper的租賃價格更是高出20%。該行稱,在運算供應情況改善之前(至少需要數年時間),對所覆蓋所有半導體領域股份,不會給予「沽售」或「跑輸大市」的評級。而在每股盈測上調後,不認為半導體股估值昂貴,並認為半導體股升浪僅是剛剛開始(We think the semi rally is just beginning)。

里昂稱,目前Anthropic已部署的晶片約為140萬顆,佔其總承諾出貨量1,400萬至1,500萬顆的一部分。令該行驚訝的是,亞馬遜(AMZN.US)      的Trainium 2是目前Anthropic運算的主力。

該行認為這種情況將會改變。計入所有交易,亞馬遜將再為Anthropic部署475萬顆Trainium晶片,而Google將增加655萬顆TPU,英偉達則以170萬顆GPU落後。該行估算,Google將佔據整體潛在市場(以美元計)的50%,英偉達將獲得35%,亞馬遜則佔15%。

Anthropic旗下Claude的低正常運行時間顯示其運算策略必須調整。其晶片採購的最終方案尚未確定,英偉達仍有機會奪回失去的市場份額。

里昂稱,2026至2027年的嚴峻運算短缺毫無疑問,但Token需求的激增,使該行原先對2028年可能出現週期性趨緩的擔憂受到質疑。Ampere的租賃價格今年迄今上漲9%,而Hopper與Blackwell的租賃價格則高出18%至20%。短期內,Token正變得更加昂貴。

里昂對多隻重磅美國科技股/半導體股最新投資評級及目標價,現表列如下:

股份|評級|目標價
台積電(2330.TW)|高度確信跑贏大市|3,030元新台幣→3,250元新台幣
英偉達(NVDA.US)      |高度確信跑贏大市|300美元
博通(AVGO.US)      |跑贏大市|425美元→605美元
Marvell(MRVL.US)      |持有→跑贏大市|90美元→225美元
AMD(AMD.US)      |持有→跑贏大市|230美元→505美元
蘋果(AAPL.US)      |跑贏大市|330美元→355美元

(da/a)(Real-time Streaming US Stocks Quote; Except All OTC quotes are at least 15 minutes delayed.)

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